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Cbox






Poll
MGS: Madoka VS Mami
Madoka
33%
 33% [ 2 ]
Mami
67%
 67% [ 4 ]
Total Votes : 6

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 Members' fanwork

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SockPuppet
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Title : Holy Knight Maiden
Posts : 318
Join date : 2016-06-25
Age : 26
Location : SH Kingdom

PostSubject: Re: Members' fanwork   Wed Mar 07, 2018 2:41 am



This is not an artwork actually but this graph portrays some problem I would like to solve...

You see, there are two phenomena (X and Y) that are pretty unlikely (thus their explanations are unlikely as well) but happened. They can be explained by further phenomena (subphenomena) that are supposed to cause X and Y. We are searching for the answer: what subphenomenon/subphenomena caused X and Y?

There is an infinite number of possible (but unlikely) subphenomena (a) that might have caused phenomenon X alone and equally infinite number of possible (but unlikely) subphenomena (b) that might have caused phenomenon Y alone. There is also 1 (one) possible but unlikely subphenomenon (c) that might have caused both phenomena X and Y.

Logically, the (c) subphenomenon theory is the most likely (has the highest probability) because it is more likely for 1 (one) unlikely phenomenon to happen than 2 (two) unlikely phenomena to happen.

However, given the fact that both (a) and (b) categories have infinite number of possible phenomena is it NOT more likely for ANY (a) subphenomenon and ANY (b) subphenomenon to happen than for CERTAIN, concrete (c) phenomenon? If there is infinite number of unlikely possibilities then together they become pretty likely, or am I wrong?

So, there is (c) theory that has the highest probability of all theories, however, according to my calculations, it is still less probable than all (a)+(b) theories taken together? Is there any way of finding the theory that explains both X and Y phenomena with 50%< probability?

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alvaro84
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PostSubject: Re: Members' fanwork   Fri Mar 09, 2018 8:29 pm

Well, I'm no expert an you got me thinking about it for a good while... But. I think the only way to determine the probability of a likely cause is to determine the probability the "cluster" of subphenomena a and b. Just because there's an infinite number of them it doesn't mean that they're very probable. Imagine a surface, like a circular diagram.

For example, you can divide the disc into 9 equal fans. The fans will have a share of 1/9th of the whole (a probability of 1:9 in this case) but individually they all consist of an infinite number of points (which are completely unlike pixels in maths). The probability of any event represented by these points are exactly zero, but they can still happen. The probability of any events happen in the fan's area is 1:9.

Your example does basically have 3 areas and what you have to know is the sizes of them.

c being a common cause for both x and y is where I can't say anything. I wasn't good at math after elementary anymore.
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PostSubject: Re: Members' fanwork   Sat Mar 10, 2018 3:10 am

Thank you! I think there may be some mistake in my calculations or there may be a factor I have not considered...

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PostSubject: Re: Members' fanwork   Tue Mar 27, 2018 1:18 pm



Ekhm my Mary Sue self-insert crossover MadoMagi/Kuroshitsuji/Sailor Moon/Shingeki no kyojin fanfic is set in AU where Homura is a boy. So all his familiars are inverted as well.

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alvaro84
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PostSubject: Re: Members' fanwork   Wed Mar 28, 2018 9:38 am

OMG doze kolorz!!! Shock 1

Hehe, they're even creepier than they are in the original movie  Happy Hop
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PostSubject: Re: Members' fanwork   Wed Mar 28, 2018 11:45 am

I like colors, painting in black-white would be boring.

Because boys ARE creepier than girls* XD 



*I like the creepy

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Title : The Witch Maker
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PostSubject: Re: Members' fanwork   Sat Mar 31, 2018 6:30 pm

Had an idea the other day about revamping one of my older witches (Blythe), thinking about making it the witch form of Shiori but idk yet...

Revamp Sketch:
 
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PostSubject: Re: Members' fanwork   Mon Apr 02, 2018 6:53 am

You have very unique style.

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