This is not an artwork actually but this graph portrays some problem I would like to solve...
You see, there are two phenomena (X and Y) that are pretty unlikely (thus their explanations are unlikely as well) but happened. They can be explained by further phenomena (subphenomena) that are supposed to cause X and Y. We are searching for the answer: what subphenomenon/subphenomena caused X and Y?
There is an infinite number of possible (but unlikely) subphenomena (a) that might have caused phenomenon X alone and equally infinite number of possible (but unlikely) subphenomena (b) that might have caused phenomenon Y alone. There is also 1 (one) possible but unlikely subphenomenon (c) that might have caused both phenomena X and Y.
Logically, the (c) subphenomenon theory is the most likely (has the highest probability) because it is more likely for 1 (one) unlikely phenomenon to happen than 2 (two) unlikely phenomena to happen.
However, given the fact that both (a) and (b) categories have infinite number of possible phenomena is it NOT more likely for ANY (a) subphenomenon and ANY (b) subphenomenon to happen than for CERTAIN, concrete (c) phenomenon? If there is infinite number of unlikely possibilities then together they become pretty likely, or am I wrong?
So, there is (c) theory that has the highest probability of all theories, however, according to my calculations, it is still less probable than all (a)+(b) theories taken together? Is there any way of finding the theory that explains both X and Y phenomena with 50%< probability?